Orlando Housing Tipping Point #1

I saw this day coming for a while now. I could see it happening; I just didn't know when they would make the move. Today was the day.

To what am I referring? I am talking about the home for sale at 2802 Kemper Ave, Orlando, FL 32814. Why is this house any different from the other homes for sale in the Orlando area? Sure, it's one of the nicer homes in the downtown Orlando area. It's a 3BR/2BA 1,740 sq.ft. single family home, built in 2005. It's located in Baldwin Park, which is one of the newer Orlando communities and also one of the most unique. Baldwin Park was formed after the closure of an old naval base. It's one of the rare places in Orlando where you can buy new condos, townhomes, and single family homes and not be 15 miles or more from downtown and not have a 30+ minute commute to work.

But, that information isn't what makes this home special. What makes this home at 2802 Kemper special is that it is the first single family home in Baldwin Park to have a listing price below $400,000 since the housing market turned. Sure, for Orlando, that is still a lot of money for a 1,700 sq.ft. house but in Baldwin Park that is a milestone. This is a neighborhood where 1,700 sq.ft. townhomes will go for $400-500K, that is, until now.

It's been a long road for 2802 Kemper. Thanks to the internet I am able to dig up some data on this home. It was purchaed on July 14, 2005 for $358,300 by Dang Nguyet. Less than a year and a half later, Dang decided that it was time to sell the house, since he had never lived in it anyway. The original listing price? $479,000. Somehow the house was suddenly worth 30% more in only 16 months. Unfortunately, for Dang, buyers didn't share his belief that the house was worth that much.

Since November the house price has been lowered a total of five times, including,

• $479,000 to $449,000
• $449,000 to $429,000
• $429,000 to $419,000
• $419,000 to $400,009
• $400,009 to $389,900

Even if Dang sells the house for the current full listing price, which won't happen, after the 6% realtor fee is taken out plus any sort of closing costs and such, he would be lucky to break even on the deal. Of course, this house will be lucky to sell for $350-360K, which means that he will lose money on his "investment."

This isn't the last house that is going to cost someone money at Baldwin Park. This market has a way to go to correct itself. In the meantime, I'm going to go pay my monthly rent, sit at the apartment pool with a cool drink, and bide my time.